Scenario: Weather Predictions - Apply probability concepts to make informed decisions about weather and events!
Your school is planning a picnic next week. The weather forecast shows: - 30% chance of rain on Monday - 20% chance of rain on Tuesday - 40% chance of rain on Wednesday - 10% chance of rain on Thursday - 25% chance of rain on Friday
Questions:
1. Which day has the lowest chance of rain?
2. What is the probability that it will NOT rain on Thursday?
3. If you choose a day randomly, what's the probability of picking a day with less than 25% chance of rain?
30%
20%
40%
10%
25%
Rain probability by day
Question 1: Which day has the lowest chance of rain?
Compare all percentages: 30%, 20%, 40%, 10%, 25%
Thursday has 10% chance of rain - the lowest!
Question 2: Probability that it will NOT rain on Thursday
If P(rain) = 10% = 0.1
Then P(no rain) = 1 - P(rain) = 1 - 0.1 = 0.9 = 90%
Question 3: Probability of picking a day with less than 25% chance of rain
Days with less than 25% rain: Tuesday (20%) and Thursday (10%)
Favorable outcomes: 2 days
Total possible outcomes: 5 days
Probability = 2/5 = 0.4 = 40%
Recommendation: Thursday is the best day for the picnic with only 10% chance of rain!
Example: 80% chance of rain means bring an umbrella!
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Example: 70% chance of profit influences investment choices
What decision do you need to make? What are your options?
Collect data and probabilities for each possible outcome.
Use probability formulas to find the likelihood of each outcome.
Choose the option with the best probability for your desired outcome.
A restaurant has a 15% chance of running out of your favorite dish. What is the probability that they will have it available?
Your solution:
You're choosing between two routes to school. Route A has a 20% chance of traffic, Route B has a 35% chance of traffic. Which route should you choose and why?
Your reasoning: