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Risk Preferences & Measurement

Investor Risk Preferences & Risk Measurement

Translate qualitative risk attitudes into quantitative metrics. Use Arrow–Pratt measures, certainty equivalents, and HARA utility functions to calibrate portfolios, price insurance, and design financial products aligned with investor profiles.

Risk Attitude Classification

Profile

Risk Averse

Condition: U''(w) < 0

Prefers certain wealth to risky gambles with equal expected value. Demands positive risk premium for uncertain prospects.

Preferred Instruments: Treasuries, investment-grade corporate bonds, insurance policies
Profile

Risk Neutral

Condition: U''(w) = 0

Indifferent between certain and risky options with equal expected value.

Preferred Instruments: Treasury bills, fair bets, actuarially priced insurance
Profile

Risk Seeking

Condition: U''(w) > 0

Prefers riskier options when expected value is equal, often chasing upside potential.

Preferred Instruments: Venture capital, lottery-like payoff structures, high-volatility options

Arrow–Pratt Risk Aversion Measures

Absolute Risk Aversion

A(w)=U(w)/U(w)A(w) = -U''(w)/U'(w)

Measures sensitivity to dollar changes in wealth. Declining A(w) indicates higher willingness to accept absolute risks with greater wealth.

Relative Risk Aversion

R(w)=wU(w)/U(w)R(w) = -w U''(w) / U'(w)

Evaluates risk tolerance in proportional terms. Constant R(w) simplifies multi-period portfolio models with growth in wealth.

Risk Tolerance

T(w)=1/A(w)T(w) = 1 / A(w)

Represents the largest fair bet size an investor accepts. Useful for calibrating utility functions to survey data.

A(w)=U(w)U(w),R(w)=wU(w)U(w) A(w) = -\frac{U''(w)}{U'(w)},\quad R(w) = -w \frac{U''(w)}{U'(w)}

Absolute and relative aversion condense curvature information into interpretable statistics, helping advisors calibrate dollar versus proportional risk tolerances.

Risk Premium & Certainty Equivalent

For a small gamble h with zero mean, the risk premium Θ satisfies U(w - Θ) = E[U(w + h)]. Using a second-order Taylor expansion yields Θ ≈ 0.5 A(w) Var(h). This links expected utility curvature to observable risk premiums demanded by investors.

Θ(w,h~)U(w)2U(w)Var(h~)=12A(w)σ2 \Theta(w,\tilde{h}) \approx -\frac{U''(w)}{2U'(w)} \operatorname{Var}(\tilde{h}) = \frac{1}{2} A(w) \sigma^2

The approximation clarifies why more curvature (higher A(w)) or higher variance command larger compensation in capital markets.

Learn the Derivation

HARA Utility Family

Utility

Exponential Utility (CARA)

U(w)=eawU(w) = -e^{-a w}

Absolute risk aversion is constant; relative risk aversion increases with wealth. Suitable for fixed-dollar hedging problems.

Utility

Log Utility

U(w)=αlnwU(w) = α ln w

Relative risk aversion equals 1. Captures long-horizon investment behavior with multiplicative shocks.

Utility

Power Utility (CRRA)

U(w) = rac{w^{1-γ}}{1-γ}

Constant relative risk aversion γ. Widely used in asset pricing and portfolio choice models.

Utility

Quadratic Utility

U(w)=w0.5aw2U(w) = w - 0.5 a w^2

Enables mean-variance analysis but implies increasing absolute risk aversion outside realistic ranges.

General HARA Specification

U(w)=1γγ(aw1γ+b)γ,a>0 U(w) = \frac{1-\gamma}{\gamma} \left( \frac{a w}{1-\gamma} + b \right)^{\gamma}, \quad a > 0

By tuning parameters (a, b, γ) we recover CARA, CRRA, logarithmic, and quadratic forms, enabling flexible calibration for insurance, asset pricing, and consumption models.

Case Study: Calibrating Risk Premiums

Step 1

Investor Profile

Assume a U.S. wealth management client with initial wealth $500,000, displaying CRRA utility with parameter γ = 3 (risk-averse).

Step 2

Investment Opportunity

Choice between a risk-free Treasury note yielding 4% and a diversified equity portfolio with expected return 8% and standard deviation 15%.

Step 3

Compute Certainty Equivalent

Using the CRRA certainty equivalent formula, CE = (E[w^{1-γ}])^{1/(1-γ)}, approximate the certain wealth level equating expected utility.

Step 4

Risk Premium

Risk premium equals expected wealth minus certainty equivalent. Compare to the risk-free payoff to gauge willingness to take equity exposure.

Financial Applications

  • Insurance pricing uses certainty equivalents to determine premiums households are willing to pay for loss protection.
  • Portfolio managers estimate risk tolerance to set strategic asset allocations and glide paths for retirement plans.
  • Corporate treasurers evaluate hedging programs by comparing certainty equivalents with and without derivatives.

Behavioral Considerations

Real-world investors may exhibit loss aversion, probability weighting, and reference dependence. Arrow–Pratt measures provide a normative benchmark, while behavioral finance adjusts utility functions (e.g., prospect theory) to match observed behaviors in equity markets and retirement savings.

Explore Empirical Studies

Q&A: Measuring Risk Preferences

How is Arrow–Pratt risk aversion used in practice?

Financial advisors estimate risk aversion to match clients with appropriate asset allocations. Insurers use it to price policies that customers are willing to buy, and banks calibrate risk limits based on expected utility losses from tail events.

What does a risk premium represent?

Risk premium is the additional expected return required to make a risk-averse investor indifferent between a risky asset and a risk-free alternative. It quantifies compensation for bearing variability and downside risk.

Why are HARA utilities important?

Hyperbolic Absolute Risk Aversion (HARA) functions encompass exponential, logarithmic, and power utilities, providing flexible modeling aligned with diverse investor behaviors and supporting analytical solutions in portfolio problems.

What’s Next?
Revisit the hub or quantify risk preferences with targeted practice exercises.