MathIsimple

Stochastic Processes – Problem 45: Prove that is both strictly stationary and wide-sense stationary

Question

Let X=Xt,t0X = X_{t}, t\geq0 be a continuous-time stochastic process. Give reasonable definitions for XX to be strictly stationary and wide-sense stationary. Let {Nt,t0}\{N_{t},t\geq0\} be a Poisson process with intensity λ\lambda, and Xt=Nt+1Nt,t0X_{t}=N_{t+1}-N_{t}, t\geq0. Prove that XX is both strictly stationary and wide-sense stationary.

Step-by-step solution

Step 1. Give the definitions of strict stationarity and wide-sense stationarity. A stochastic process {Xt,t0}\{X_t, t \ge 0\} is called strictly stationary if for any positive integer nn, any time points t1,t2,,tn0t_1, t_2, \dots, t_n \ge 0, and any time shift h>0h > 0, the random vectors (Xt1,Xt2,,Xtn)(X_{t_1}, X_{t_2}, \dots, X_{t_n}) and (Xt1+h,Xt2+h,,Xtn+h)(X_{t_1+h}, X_{t_2+h}, \dots, X_{t_n+h}) have the same joint distribution. A stochastic process {Xt,t0}\{X_t, t \ge 0\} is called wide-sense stationary (or second-order stationary) if it satisfies three conditions: 1. Finite second moments: E[Xt2]<E[X_t^2] < \infty for all tt; 2. Constant mean function: E[Xt]=μE[X_t] = \mu for all tt; 3. The autocovariance function Cov(Xt,Xt+s)Cov(X_t, X_{t+s}) depends only on the time lag ss, not on the starting time tt.

Step 2. Prove that Xt=Nt+1NtX_t = N_{t+1} - N_t is strictly stationary. The Poisson process {Nt}\{N_t\} has stationary increments, meaning for any t0t \ge 0 and h>0h > 0, the increment Nt+hNtN_{t+h} - N_t depends only on the time interval length hh, following a Poisson distribution with parameter λh\lambda h. For Xt=Nt+1NtX_t = N_{t+1} - N_t, this is exactly an increment over an interval of length 1. The shift tt+ht \to t+h preserves all interval lengths (all equal to 1) and the relative positions (overlap lengths) of the intervals [ti,ti+1][t_i, t_i+1]. Since the Poisson process has stationary independent increments, the joint distribution is invariant under the shift. Hence XtX_t is strictly stationary.

Step 3. Prove that XtX_t is wide-sense stationary. First verify finite second moments: XtPoisson(λ)X_t \sim \text{Poisson}(\lambda), so E[Xt2]=λ+λ2<E[X_t^2] = \lambda + \lambda^2 < \infty. The mean is constant: E[Xt]=λE[X_t] = \lambda. For the autocovariance, let s0s \ge 0. If s1s \ge 1, the intervals [t,t+1][t, t+1] and [t+s,t+s+1][t+s, t+s+1] are disjoint, so XtX_t and Xt+sX_{t+s} are independent and Cov(Xt,Xt+s)=0Cov(X_t, X_{t+s}) = 0. If 0s<10 \le s < 1, decompose into independent increments: Xt=A+BX_t = A+B, Xt+s=B+CX_{t+s} = B+C where A=Nt+sNtA = N_{t+s} - N_t, B=Nt+1Nt+sB = N_{t+1} - N_{t+s}, C=Nt+s+1Nt+1C = N_{t+s+1} - N_{t+1} are mutually independent. Then Cov(Xt,Xt+s)=Var(B)=λ(1s)Cov(X_t, X_{t+s}) = Var(B) = \lambda(1-s). The covariance R(s)=λ(1s)R(s) = \lambda(1-|s|) for s<1|s|<1 and 00 otherwise depends only on ss, not on tt. Hence XtX_t is wide-sense stationary.

Final answer

(1) Strict stationarity: for any n,t1,,tn,hn, t_{1}, \dots, t_{n}, h, (Xt1,,Xtn)(X_{t_{1}}, \dots, X_{t_{n}}) and (Xt1+h,,Xtn+h)(X_{t_{1}+h}, \dots, X_{t_{n}+h}) have the same distribution. Wide-sense stationarity: finite second moments, constant mean, autocovariance depends only on the time lag. (2) QED.

Marking scheme

The following is the rubric based on the official solution.

1. Checkpoints (max 7 pts total)

  • Definitions (2 pts) [additive]
  • Strict stationarity definition: Correctly state that for any nn, any time points t1,,tnt_1, \dots, t_n and any shift hh, the random vectors (Xt1,,Xtn)(X_{t_1}, \dots, X_{t_n}) and (Xt1+h,,Xtn+h)(X_{t_1+h}, \dots, X_{t_n+h}) have the same joint distribution. (1 pt)
  • Wide-sense stationarity definition: Correctly list three conditions: (1) E[Xt2]<E[X_t^2] < \infty; (2) constant mean; (3) autocovariance Cov(Xt,Xt+s)Cov(X_t, X_{t+s}) depends only on ss. (1 pt)
  • *If the finite second moment condition is omitted, this point is 0.*
  • Proof of Strict Stationarity (2 pts) [additive]
  • Use stationary increments: State that the Poisson process NtN_t has stationary increments (or that increment distributions depend only on interval length). (1 pt)
  • Joint distribution invariance: Argue that the joint distribution of (Xt1,,Xtn)(X_{t_1}, \dots, X_{t_n}) is determined by interval lengths and relative overlap, which are preserved under time shift. (1 pt)
  • Proof of Wide-sense Stationarity (3 pts)
  • Score exactly one chain:
  • Chain A: Direct Calculation [additive]
  • Verify moments and mean: Verify E[Xt]=λE[X_t] = \lambda (constant) and E[Xt2]<E[X_t^2] < \infty. (1 pt)
  • Covariance structure analysis: Set up Cov(Xt,Xt+s)Cov(X_t, X_{t+s}), identifying disjoint (s1|s| \ge 1, independent) and overlapping (s<1|s| < 1) cases. (1 pt)
  • Computation conclusion: Derive the correct covariance expression (λ(1s)\lambda(1-|s|) for s<1|s|<1) or show it depends only on ss. (1 pt)
  • Chain B: Implication Theorem [additive]
  • Verify moments and mean: (1 pt)
  • Cite theorem: Explicitly state "a strictly stationary process with finite second moments is necessarily wide-sense stationary." (2 pts)
  • Total (max 7)

2. Zero-credit items

  • Defining strict stationarity using only one-dimensional marginals.
  • Confusing XtX_t (increment) with NtN_t (counting process).
  • Claiming dependence on ss only "by inspection" without independence analysis or overlap computation.

3. Deductions

  • -1: Algebraic error in covariance computation yielding a result containing tt.
  • -1: In Chain B, not verifying E[Xt2]<E[X_t^2] < \infty before using the implication.
  • -1: Confusing notation ss and hh causing unclear exposition.
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