MathIsimple

Stochastic Processes – Problem 47: Prove that is a Markov chain and find its invariant distribution

Question

Let XtX_{t} be a jump process on state space SS with transition rate matrix QQ, assumed to be positive recurrent with invariant distribution π\pi. Let SnS_{n} be an independent Poisson process with rate λ\lambda, i.e., Sn=Z1++ZnS_{n}=Z_{1}+\cdots+Z_{n} where ZiZ_{i} are i.i.d. exponential random variables with parameter λ\lambda. Prove that Yn:=XSnY_{n}:=X_{S_{n}} is a Markov chain and find its invariant distribution.

Step-by-step solution

Step 1. Let (Xt)t0(X_t)_{t\ge0} be a positive recurrent continuous-time Markov chain with transition semigroup Pt(i,j)=P(Xt=jX0=i),i,jS,P_t(i,j)=P(X_t=j\mid X_0=i),\qquad i,j\in S, and invariant distribution π\pi, so πPt=π\pi P_t=\pi for every t0t\ge0.

Step 2. Let Z1,Z2,Z_1,Z_2,\dots be i.i.d. Exp(λ)\operatorname{Exp}(\lambda), independent of XX, and define Sn=Z1++Zn,Yn:=XSn.S_n=Z_1+\cdots+Z_n, \qquad Y_n:=X_{S_n}. We compute the one-step kernel of YY: K(i,j):=P(Yn+1=jYn=i)=0Pt(i,j)λeλtdt.K(i,j):=P(Y_{n+1}=j\mid Y_n=i) =\int_0^\infty P_t(i,j)\,\lambda e^{-\lambda t}\,dt. This formula follows from conditioning on Zn+1Z_{n+1}, and it is independent of nn.

Step 3. Markov property. Given Yn=iY_n=i, the future state is Yn+1=XSn+Zn+1Y_{n+1}=X_{S_n+Z_{n+1}}. By independence of Zn+1Z_{n+1} and the strong Markov property of XX at time SnS_n, the conditional law of Yn+1Y_{n+1} depends only on Yn=iY_n=i, not on (Y0,,Yn1)(Y_0,\dots,Y_{n-1}). Therefore (Yn)(Y_n) is a time-homogeneous discrete-time Markov chain with kernel KK.

Step 4. Invariance of π\pi. For each jSj\in S, iSπ(i)K(i,j)=iπ(i)0Pt(i,j)λeλtdt=0(iπ(i)Pt(i,j))λeλtdt.\sum_{i\in S}\pi(i)K(i,j) =\sum_i\pi(i)\int_0^\infty P_t(i,j)\lambda e^{-\lambda t}dt =\int_0^\infty\Bigl(\sum_i\pi(i)P_t(i,j)\Bigr)\lambda e^{-\lambda t}dt. Since πPt=π\pi P_t=\pi, the inner sum equals π(j)\pi(j). Hence iπ(i)K(i,j)=0π(j)λeλtdt=π(j).\sum_i\pi(i)K(i,j) =\int_0^\infty \pi(j)\lambda e^{-\lambda t}dt =\pi(j). So π\pi is invariant for YY.

Conclusion: Yn=XSnY_n=X_{S_n} is a discrete-time Markov chain with transition matrix K=0Ptλeλtdt,K=\int_0^\infty P_t\,\lambda e^{-\lambda t}dt, and invariant distribution equal to the same π\pi.

Final answer

QED.

Marking scheme

The following is the rubric based on the official solution:

1. Checkpoints (max 7 pts total)

I. Markov property of YnY_n (2 pts)

  • Express Yn+1=XSn+Zn+1Y_{n+1} = X_{S_n + Z_{n+1}} and use independence of Zn+1Z_{n+1} [1 pt]
  • Cite Markov property of XtX_t to conclude YnY_n is a Markov chain [1 pt]

II. Transition probability (2 pts)

  • Establish Pij=0λeλtPij(t)dtP_{ij} = \int_0^\infty \lambda e^{-\lambda t} P_{ij}(t) dt [1 pt]
  • Derive λPij=δij+kQikPkj\lambda P_{ij} = \delta_{ij} + \sum_k Q_{ik} P_{kj} [1 pt]

III. Invariant distribution (3 pts)

Score exactly one chain (A or B):

  • Chain A: Claim π\pi, substitute into stationarity equation using π(i)Qik=0\sum \pi(i) Q_{ik} = 0, verify [3 pts]
  • Chain B: Use integral form, exchange sum and integral, use iπiPt(i,j)=πj\sum_i \pi_i P_t(i,j) = \pi_j [3 pts]

Total (max 7)


2. Zero-credit items

  • Merely copying definitions without derivation for YnY_n.
  • Directly claiming π\pi is invariant without verification.

3. Deductions

  • Notation confusion (-1): Confusing Pij(t)P_{ij}(t) with PijP_{ij}.
  • Logical gap (-1): Not mentioning independence of Zn+1Z_{n+1}.
  • Coefficient error (cap at 6/7).
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